Current Tropical Cyclones
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 14:44:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Oct 2019 15:24:21 GMT
Updated 14 October 2019 | 9:44 am
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 13
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019
000 WTNT44 KNHC 141438 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 Melissa has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Shallow convection has become displaced greater than 100 n mi from the center, and Melissa's circulation has become embedded within a frontal zone. The inner-core now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a large amount of cool post-frontal stratocumulus wrapping into the northern and western portions of the circulation. A recent ship report just southwest of the center indicated gale-force winds are still occuring in association with Melissa, and 35 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually weaken over the next day or so, and dissipate before it reaches the Azores. Melissa is now moving at 080/20 kt and is embedded within mid-latitude westerlies. This general motion is expected to continue until the cyclone dissipates. This is the last advisory on Melissa from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 41.0N 51.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 15/0000Z 41.4N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 15/1200Z 41.4N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
Updated 14 October 2019 | 9:38 am
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
000
FONT14 KNHC 141437
PWSAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019
1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER LATTO
Updated 14 October 2019 | 9:37 am
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019
000 WTNT24 KNHC 141437 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC MON OCT 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 41.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 41.4N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 51.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Updated 14 October 2019 | 9:37 am
Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Public Advisory Number 13
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019
000 WTNT34 KNHC 141437 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 14 2019 ...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.0N 51.4W ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa was located near latitude 41.0 North, longitude 51.4 West. Melissa is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone should gradually weaken before it dissipates on Tuesday. Gale-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to the southeast through southwest of the from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are gradually subsiding along much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. $$ Forecaster Latto
Updated 14 October 2019 | 9:37 am
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
...MELISSA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 14 the center of Melissa was located near 41.0, -51.4 with movement E at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Updated 14 October 2019 | 9:37 am
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 141150
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Melissa, located several hundred miles south of Newfoundland,
Canada.
A large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands
is moving slowly west-northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms are
showing some signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during
the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward to
northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds
should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is
forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
north-central Honduras. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern
Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the
next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to
emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could
become a little more conducive for some organization to occur.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. While
thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, upper-level
winds are not particularly conducive for significant development of
this system over the next couple of days while it moves westward at
around 15 mph. By Wednesday, as the wave approaches the Windward
Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for
any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
Updated 14 October 2019 | 6:50 am