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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics

Tropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 02:38:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 03:22:07 GMT

Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018


866 
WTNT45 KNHC 170237
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Convection associated with Ernesto has increased in both coverage
and intensity since the last advisory, with a large convective band
wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the system.
However, recent scatterometer data suggests that this has not yet
resulted in strengthening, with winds of 35-40 kt observed about
80 n mi southeast of the center.  Based mainly on the scatterometer
data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

While Ernesto is in a warm moist air mass to the east of a
mid-latitude cyclone near Newfoundland, the forecast track quickly
takes it over sea surface temperatures that will decrease to near
15C in 24 h.  This should lead to the dissipation of the convection
and to Ernesto becoming a post-tropical cyclone.  In 36-48 h, the
post-tropical cyclone should merge with a frontal zone, with the
resulting extratropical low dissipating between 48-72 h.  Overall,
the new intensity forecast is nudged slightly downward from the
previous forecast, as the guidance no longer shows significant
strengthening. Given the increased convection, though, some
short-lived strengthening could occur in the next 12 h. In addition,
the current trends have led to the time of Ernesto becoming
post-tropical being moved back 12 h.

The initial motion is now 055/19.  The cyclone should accelerate
further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the
mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two.  The dynamical
model guidance remains tightly clustered and, as with the previous
advisory, little change was made to the track forecast.  On the
forecast track, Ernesto or its remnants should approach Ireland and
the United Kingdom in about 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 44.1N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 46.1N  34.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 48.9N  27.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  18/1200Z 51.2N  19.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/0000Z 53.2N  12.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018


505 
FONT15 KNHC 170237
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 44.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018


458 
WTNT35 KNHC 170237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.1N 38.9W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 44.1 North, longitude 38.9 West.  Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h).  A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach
Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal
zone on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 44.1, -38.9 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018


970 
WTNT25 KNHC 170236
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N  38.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N  38.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N  40.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.1N  34.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 48.9N  27.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 140SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 51.2N  19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.2N  12.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.1N  38.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:36 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


614
ABNT20 KNHC 162323
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.

A large area of poorly-organized showers and thunderstorms located
about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some development of this system is possible
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday,
unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for
additional development while the system moves over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Updated 16 August 2018 | 6:23 pm