Current Tropical Cyclones


Tropical Storm Odette Graphics

Tropical Storm Odette 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 08:38:30 GMT

Tropical Storm Odette 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Sep 2021 09:22:39 GMT

Updated 18 September 2021 | 3:38 am

Tropical Storm Odette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021


000
FONT15 KNHC 180836
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152021               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)   X(16)   1(17)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   7( 7)  31(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Updated 18 September 2021 | 3:36 am

Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021


000
WTNT45 KNHC 180836
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
 
Odette does not look very much like a tropical cyclone.  All of the 
deep convection continues to be displaced well to the east of the 
poorly-defined center due to strong westerly shear.  The circulation 
is elongated from southwest to northeast and contains multiple 
low-cloud swirls.  The current intensity of the system is estimated 
to be near 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer observations, and 
these stronger winds are occurring in the convection over the 
eastern semicircle of the cyclone, well removed from the center.

Since the center is not so easy to locate, the motion is rather 
uncertain.  However the system appears to be accelerating and the 
initial motion estimate is roughly 050/13 kt.  Odette is embedded 
within the flow on the south side of a mid-latitude shortwave 
trough.  This steering pattern should carry the system northeastward 
to east-northeastward for the next couple of days.  Afterwards, the 
trough is predicted by the global models to cut off to the south of 
eastern Newfoundland.  As a result, Odette is likely to turn a 
little south of east and decelerate in 3-4 days.  By the end of the 
forecast period, the cyclone is expected to begin moving 
northeastward on the east side of the cutoff low.  The official 
track forecast is similar to the previous one but a little farther 
south around days 4 and 5.  This is in good agreement with the 
latest corrected model consensus.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over 
Odette will get even stronger over the next few days.   As the 
system will soon begin to move over the cooler waters to the north 
of the Gulf Stream, its primary energy source should come from 
baroclinicity.  In about 24 hours, the dynamical guidance shows 
significant thermal advection around the cyclone, signifying its 
extratropical transition.  The global models show the post-tropical 
cyclone deepening through 48 hours and the official forecast calls 
for some strengthening up to that time.  Later in the period, as 
the baroclinic energy source appears to wane, gradual weakening is 
expected.
 
As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this
weekend and into Monday, the wind field is forecast to expand 
significantly.  Odette is expected to affect portions of 
Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday 
as a strong post-tropical cyclone.  Please refer to products 
from Environment Canada for additional information on potential 
impacts in Newfoundland.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 38.0N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 39.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 40.8N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1800Z 42.4N  58.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0600Z 43.3N  54.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  20/1800Z 43.5N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0600Z 43.0N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0600Z 42.5N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/0600Z 43.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Updated 18 September 2021 | 3:36 am

Tropical Storm Odette Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021


000
WTNT35 KNHC 180836
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
 
...ODETTE FORECAST TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.0N 69.3W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's
potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was 
located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 69.3 West.  Odette is 
moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A faster 
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next 
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Odette will 
pass south of Atlantic Canada on Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Odette is 
expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of
the United States Mid-Atlantic coast and are expected to spread
northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada
coasts during the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Updated 18 September 2021 | 3:36 am

Summary for Tropical Storm Odette (AT5/AL152021)

...ODETTE FORECAST TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 18 the center of Odette was located near 38.0, -69.3 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Updated 18 September 2021 | 3:36 am

Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021


000
WTNT25 KNHC 180835
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152021
0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  69.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N  69.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N  70.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.2N  66.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.8N  62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.4N  58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 43.3N  54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N  51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N  48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 42.5N  46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 43.0N  46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N  69.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Updated 18 September 2021 | 3:35 am

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180541
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odette, located several hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic
U.S. coast.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 1000
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a more
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, primarily west of
the center. This system is currently nearly stationary, but is
expected to begin moving towards the northwest at 5 to 10 mph over
the far eastern Atlantic where some additional development is
possible over the weekend. However, by early next week, further
development appears unlikely as the system is forecast to move into
less conducive upper-level winds and over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Odette are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Updated 18 September 2021 | 12:41 am