Current Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 02:38:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 03:22:07 GMT
Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:38 pm
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 8
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018
866 WTNT45 KNHC 170237 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Convection associated with Ernesto has increased in both coverage and intensity since the last advisory, with a large convective band wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the system. However, recent scatterometer data suggests that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, with winds of 35-40 kt observed about 80 n mi southeast of the center. Based mainly on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. While Ernesto is in a warm moist air mass to the east of a mid-latitude cyclone near Newfoundland, the forecast track quickly takes it over sea surface temperatures that will decrease to near 15C in 24 h. This should lead to the dissipation of the convection and to Ernesto becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 36-48 h, the post-tropical cyclone should merge with a frontal zone, with the resulting extratropical low dissipating between 48-72 h. Overall, the new intensity forecast is nudged slightly downward from the previous forecast, as the guidance no longer shows significant strengthening. Given the increased convection, though, some short-lived strengthening could occur in the next 12 h. In addition, the current trends have led to the time of Ernesto becoming post-tropical being moved back 12 h. The initial motion is now 055/19. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and, as with the previous advisory, little change was made to the track forecast. On the forecast track, Ernesto or its remnants should approach Ireland and the United Kingdom in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 44.1N 38.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm
Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018
505
FONT15 KNHC 170237
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018
0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm
Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 8
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018
458 WTNT35 KNHC 170237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 ...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.1N 38.9W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 44.1 North, longitude 38.9 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Ernesto will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday and then become extratropical as it merges with a frontal zone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm
Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
...ERNESTO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 the center of Ernesto was located near 44.1, -38.9 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:37 pm
Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 8
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018
970 WTNT25 KNHC 170236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 38.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 38.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 40.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.1N 34.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 48.9N 27.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 51.2N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 53.2N 12.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.1N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Updated 16 August 2018 | 9:36 pm
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
614
ABNT20 KNHC 162323
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Ernesto located several hundred miles east-southeast of Cape
Race, Newfoundland.
A large area of poorly-organized showers and thunderstorms located
about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is associated
with a tropical wave. Some development of this system is possible
over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph toward the Windward Islands. By late Saturday,
unfavorable environmental conditions should limit the chances for
additional development while the system moves over the eastern
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is likely to
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Friday and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Updated 16 August 2018 | 6:23 pm