Tropical Advisories

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Mon Sep 16 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms about 540
miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii has become better
organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system
could become a tropical depression within a few days as it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. An elongated area of low pressure lies some 800 miles southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii. Slow development is possible during the
next several days while the area slowly moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located about 1150 miles west-southwest of Kauai,
continues to remain disorganized. This system is expected to
slowly move northeast into unfavorable environmental conditions.
Development, if any, will be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Kino

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located nearly 600 miles west of Bermuda.

1. A small low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system has changed little in
organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations
indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are
no signs of a surface circulation at this time. Some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper
Texas coastal areas later this week. For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila