Tropical Advisories

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Western Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the
Florida peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected
to form within this area by early Friday, and this system could
acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday
while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North
Carolina. Regardless of subtropical development, this low is likely
to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to
portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States on Friday
and into the weekend. Additional information on this system,
including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Thu Sep 21 2023

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Approximately 1100 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii (CP91):
An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days before environmental conditions
become less conducive while it moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.

Forecaster Gibbs