Storm Prediction Center Discussions


MD 1568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA
MD 1568 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1568
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Areas affected...southern New England southwest to northern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 221711Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- mainly in the form of locally damaging
winds -- will increase over the next new hours across southern New
England and the mid-Atlantic region.  A severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be required.

DISCUSSION...Despite modest lapse rates aloft, daytime heating of a
moist warm-sector (east of the advancing cold front crossing western
PA and south of a warm front lying from northern PA to southern New
England) is allowing gradual airmass destabilization to occur.

Latest visible imagery continues to reveal cu/cb development, within
the zone of clearing (per visible imagery) east of the higher
terrain.

With continued heating/destabilization, and a gradual increase in
southwesterly mid-level flow across the region ahead of the
advancing upper trough, the environment will become increasingly
supportive of organized storms.  Attendant risk for locally damaging
winds will accompany stronger multicell/transient supercell storms,
with this risk expected to become sufficient to warrant WW issuance
within the next hour.

..Goss/Guyer.. 07/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
RNK...

LAT...LON   42027265 41767146 40977189 40377395 39517467 37847631
            37547877 38047943 40407734 41677415 42027265 

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Updated 22 July 2019 | 12:12 pm