Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday: Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region...
An occluding cyclone is forecast to weaken over the northern Plains
on Sunday, with any threat for organized severe storms likely to be
confined to parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex region,
along/south of a cold front. Extended-range guidance generally
suggests that a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move
from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Sunday, though
considerable spread remains regarding the track and intensity of
this feature, and also regarding the cold-frontal position by Sunday
afternoon. The shortwave trough may be favorably timed to support
vigorous storm development Sunday afternoon/evening near and south
of the cold front, with some severe threat potentially evolving
across some portion of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex region.

...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday...
A few strong storms may be possible early next week across parts of
TX, though weakening deep-layer flow/shear should keep any severe
threat relatively isolated. Another mid/upper-level trough may
induce cyclogenesis across some portion of the High Plains by mid
week, though initial moisture return will tend to be somewhat
limited, and predictability remains low regarding any notable
increase in severe potential in association with this system.

Updated 21 September 2023 | 4:03 am