Convective Outlook


SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across
much of southern Texas, with damaging wind and hail. Additional
severe storms remain possible across portions of the Ozarks through
this evening, the main hazard being a brief tornado.

...Much of southern TX...
Several intense cells persist as of 01Z across the Rio Grande
Valley, likely producing damaging hail. Storm coverage will increase
tonight as the shortwave trough digs south, and substantial
large-scale lift is incurred. Linear forcing along the developing
cold front as well as an eventual merging of outflow may result in
an MCS producing damaging winds. Capping appears relatively minimal
for this region with storms reaching the coast before 12Z.

...Eastern OK, western AR, southwest MO area...
Multiple arcing lines of storms persist from northern LA across AR
and into northeast OK in association with a midlevel wave. Ahead of
these storms, a moist and unstable air mass remains which should
sustain them for several hours. Low-level shear will remain
favorable for rotating storms and a brief tornado as 850 mb winds
increase to 50 kt out of the southeast this evening. For more
information see mesoscale discussion #730.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2020

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Updated 25 May 2020 | 8:02 pm