Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight. Only minor modifications were made to the general thunder area over the Northeast as drying continues behind the cold front, ending potential over the Mid Atlantic. Warm advection ahead of a surface low approaching Long Island may support weak, elevated instability and a few lightning flashes over southern New England within the broader area of precipitation. See previous discussion for further information. ..Jewell.. 01/25/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020/ ...South-Central States... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains will dampen as it reaches the Ark-La-Tex by early morning Sunday. Low-level warm advection ahead of this wave will aid in scattered elevated convection developing overnight across southeast TX into western LA. A separate corridor of elevated convection should also form across southeast OK into the Ark-La-Tex amid steeper mid-level lapse rates and forcing for ascent near the trough. Weak buoyancy will limit updraft strength, but small hail is possible in a few cells across southeast TX towards dawn. ...Coastal Southern New England... Strongly forced ascent within the warm conveyor downstream of a shortwave impulse rotating north across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States may compensate for meager elevated buoyancy to yield sporadic lightning flashes, mainly this evening.Read more
Updated 25 January 2020 | 1:44 pm