Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Wednesday over the CONUS. ...Discussion... Broad cyclonic flow will largely prevail across the U.S. Wednesday, as one short-wave trough exits the eastern U.S., while a second shifts out of the Rockies into the central portion of the country. Meanwhile, ridging will prevail over the West Coast states, and vicinity. At the surface, the trailing portion of a cold front crossing the western Atlantic will likely have cleared even southern Florida by the start of the period, and will continue advancing southward with time. Little thunder risk is thus apparent, even over south Florida and the Keys. As an upper low crosses northern Mexico, convection is expected -- but with any instability likely remaining to the Mexican side of the Rio Grande, appreciable risk for lightning over south Texas is not apparent. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: Read moreUpdated 12 November 2019 | 11:27 am
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little or no thunderstorm potential is expected across the country today and tonight. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to move southeastward and off the southeast Atlantic coast this afternoon, and then continue southward across the central/southern FL Peninsula through early Wednesday. Regional 12z soundings showed limited potential for warm sector buoyancy this afternoon across north FL given rather modest low-level moisture, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be displaced well north of FL and largely offshore. While some shallow convection may occur this afternoon along the front, the threat for thunderstorms appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, midlevel ridging will prevail over CA/NV and the majority of the CONUS will be dominated by a cold/dry continental polar air mass. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 11/12/2019Read more
Updated 12 November 2019 | 10:33 am