Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
While a couple of thunderstorms could occur across the central Great
Basin/Intermountain West today, the overall thunderstorm potential
across the country will be very limited.

...Great Basin/Central Rockies...
An amplifying large-scale pattern will include the
east/southeastward transition of an upper-level trough and strong
polar jet from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area.
Moisture content will remain very limited but steepening lapse rates
and strong forcing related to the exit region of the upper jet and
trough-embedded vort max may allow for a few lightning strikes
today, potentially from southeast NV into southern UT and possibly
western CO. While a few lightning strikes may occur across this
region, the probability for thunderstorms should remain less than 10
percent given only marginally conducive thermodynamic profiles for
lightning production.

..Guyer.. 01/21/2019

Updated 21 January 2019 | 6:51 am