Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...01z Update...

Low-level confluence has shifted east of the FL Peninsula early this
evening in response to approaching short-wave trough. Thunderstorms
are now concentrated along this zone with a few storms lagging west
of the Keys, which are expected to weaken with time. Thunderstorm
potential is very low across FL the rest of the period. Farther
north, air mass is recovering along the Outer Banks within a modest
warm-advection regime. A few flashes of lightning may accompany
convection across this region prior to large-scale forcing shifting
east of the coast.

Upper jet is sagging south across CA and with it much colder
mid-level temperatures. Steep lapse rates and orographic influences
will continue to aid scattered convection this evening, primarily
along the west slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada; however,
nocturnal cooling should result in weaker instability later this
evening and the threat of lightning should diminish.

..Darrow.. 02/06/2023

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Updated 5 February 2023 | 6:47 pm