Convective Outlook


SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Wednesday over the CONUS.

...Discussion...
Broad cyclonic flow will largely prevail across the U.S. Wednesday,
as one short-wave trough exits the eastern U.S., while a second
shifts out of the Rockies into the central portion of the country. 
Meanwhile, ridging will prevail over the West Coast states, and
vicinity.  

At the surface, the trailing portion of a cold front crossing the
western Atlantic will likely have cleared even southern Florida by
the start of the period, and will continue advancing southward with
time.  Little thunder risk is thus apparent, even over south Florida
and the Keys.

As an upper low crosses northern Mexico, convection is expected --
but with any instability likely remaining to the Mexican side of the
Rio Grande, appreciable risk for lightning over south Texas is not
apparent.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  
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Updated 12 November 2019 | 11:27 am

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little or no thunderstorm potential is expected across the country
today and tonight.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will continue to move southeastward and off the
southeast Atlantic coast this afternoon, and then continue southward
across the central/southern FL Peninsula through early Wednesday. 
Regional 12z soundings showed limited potential for warm sector
buoyancy this afternoon across north FL given rather modest
low-level moisture, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be
displaced well north of FL and largely offshore.  While some shallow
convection may occur this afternoon along the front, the threat for
thunderstorms appears too low to warrant an outlook area. 
Otherwise, midlevel ridging will prevail over CA/NV and the majority
of the CONUS will be dominated by a cold/dry continental polar air
mass.

..Thompson/Broyles.. 11/12/2019

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Updated 12 November 2019 | 10:33 am