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Convective Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING ACORSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central and southeast Texas into adjacent portions of southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. One or two organizing clusters could evolve, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... It appears that split westerlies will continue to trend more zonal to the east of the Rockies during this period, in the wake of a deepening and occluding cyclone migrating northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. Models suggest that the leading edge of a significant cold intrusion trailing the cyclone will stall across the southern Mid Atlantic, and perhaps substantively begin to modify across the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Missouri Valleys. Across the Great Plains, some of this cold air may continue to nose southward toward the Texas South Plains, in the wake of mid-level troughing progressing east of the southern Rockies/northern Mexican Plateau toward the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Although substantive spread is evident in the various model output concerning a couple of smaller-scale embedded perturbations, it appears that one mid-level cyclonic vorticity center will weaken while progressing east-southeast of the Texas Panhandle vicinity early the period. A trailing perturbation may become better-defined while progressing east of the Permian Basin/Texas Bend through the upper Texas coast vicinity by late Thursday night. Models suggest that this could support a developing surface low across the upper Texas coastal plain/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, along the western flank of a developing frontal zone extending east-southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, it still appears that any cyclogenesis will be rather weak. ...Southeast Texas... Moderate boundary-layer CAPE developing beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air may spread north-northwest of middle Texas coastal areas, toward the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas during the day. This may be aided by a corridor of stronger daytime heating, but much will depend on the extent of convective development which may be spreading east-northeastward into middle Texas coastal areas at the outset of the period, supported by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. There is some signal in the model output that this activity could grow upscale, supported by increasingly moist/unstable low-level inflow, while progressing across the coastal plain into the western Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, potential for renewed vigorous thunderstorm later in the day across parts of central into southeast Texas becomes more unclear. Barring a substantive negative impact on further inland destabilization, forcing for ascent with the primary upstream short wave may contribute to the initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity by late afternoon. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, supercells capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although low-level hodographs may be modest to weak, a tornado or two will probably also be possible. Into Thursday evening, convection may tend to consolidate and grow upscale into an organizing cluster near or just ahead of the developing surface low across upper Texas into southwestern Louisiana coastal areas. It is possible that severe probabilities across at least parts of upper Texas coastal areas will need to be increased in later outlooks. However, this may take a few cycles with much depending on sub-synoptic developments. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024Read more
Updated 19 March 2024 | 2:31 am
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the western Atlantic through this period. Within one branch, consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night. This may be accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday. Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing, but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale impulses. One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday through Wednesday night. A trailing perturbation may accelerate through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday. There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface troughing across the southern Great Plains. And low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin. Better low-level moistening may remain confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air. ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity... To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon. But it still appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep, well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity center. Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may only become modest, at best, this environment could still support strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening. ...Southern Texas... A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg. Considerable uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by late Wednesday night, if not earlier. If this occurs, strong deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024Read more
Updated 19 March 2024 | 12:21 am
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to NM during the period. A mid-level ridge will extend northward from northern CA into the Pacific Northwest. Farther east, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward through the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners. Surface high pressure centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024Read more
Updated 19 March 2024 | 12:19 am